The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is a humanitarian crisis and also charged with emotions
From a macroeconomic point of view, the number one variable of the current crisis is the energy prices and all the other soft and raw materials. It will impact heating bills, car bills, food bills, and so on. Currently we are forecasting global growth of around 4.3% and a CPI that runs around 4.7% for 2022, but if oil prices reach $150/barrel for two quarters, growth could decelerate to 1% and CPI reach 7.2%. The key here is not really the level; the key is how long will the price of oil stay high. Recession risks, lower than current fears justify There are risks to the downsi...
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