The metaphorical closing bell

Ever-lower bond yields are in the rearview mirror

Nobody rings a bell to signal a peak in the market or change in leadership. Instead, such shifts in long-term trends are often only obvious in hindsight, possibly months later.

I recall in the summer of 2000, long after the Nasdaq index had peaked in March. Earlier that year, the majority of investors still expected technology stocks to move up to new highs - the proceeding sideways move through the summer was thought to be just a pause in an ever-upward trend. Of course, in looking back, the mistakes are obvious to see, but at the time they were not. Instead, at the end, stock market bubbles go ‘hiss' and not ‘pop' as confidence leaks away, slowly at first but then faster. More recently, there has been a fashion towards growth stocks which has seen their va...