Does Donald Trump have any chance of re-election?

clock • 5 min read

History tells us that US elections are all about the economy. For a nation priding itself on economic dominance on the international stage, this makes sense.

Given a more limited social safety net than many of its developed world peers, and an unwavering belief in the virtues of the ‘American Dream', the health of the labour market is also of critical importance to the average American voter. What does all this mean for President Trump's November re-election bid? If the economy is solid and the employment picture healthy, an incumbent president in the US stands a very good chance of re-election. All the way back to Roosevelt, the incumbent has always been re-elected, provided there has been no economic recession in the two years leading up to...

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