Cause for cautious optimism: The outlook for China

Coming out of Covid-19's shadow

There is little doubt the Covid-19 will be remembered through time as 2020's black swan – and perhaps one of unprecedented dimensions.

The global economy started off the year on a strong footing, with growth set to expand at 3.3% according to the IMF's January forecasts, but in the April's updated forecasts, growth is now set to shrink by 3% in what can be a more severe shock than the Global Financial Crisis. What a difference a quarter can make. Of course, the spread of the virus has impacted economies at different times year to date. The estimated peak hits are projected to arrive in Q1 for China, and in Q2 for Europe and the US. Accordingly, last week China's GDP contracted by -6.8% year-on-year in Q1, a sharper f...