Covid-19: Hoping for the best, planning for the worst

The ‘tug of war’ begins

While the humanitarian crisis continues unabated in many regions of the world, April should begin to see some respite in terms of infections starting first in Italy and hopefully continuing into other areas of continental Europe as well.

More uncertain, however, is the situation in the United States where shutdowns have been driven at the state rather than at national level. As a result, the initial outbreaks along the American east and west coasts are now resulting in secondary outbreaks through key urban centres in the middle of the country, suggesting a national peak has not yet arrived. Looking ahead for Europe and, once again, referencing the China and Korea timetables, shutdowns look set to continue for several weeks more to minimise and contain the prospect of secondary outbreaks which China is now experiencing. ...