Why 2020 could be a game changer for 'de-Japanifying' Japan
Country 'doing the opposite' from rest of the world
Japan, along with China and Korea, is seeing a noted stabilisation in net virus count and related deaths.
Our conversations with several companies in recent days have focused on the normalisation of China factory output and utilisation (Keyence or Daikin are direct beneficiaries, in our Japan portfolio), Chinese consumer demand (Kose benefits from skincare demand from returning women workers in China) and Japan's own consumer demand - with sushi chain Sushiro reporting long lines and supermarket operator Kobe Bussan benefiting from increased demand for home supplies.
Like every economy, Japan will be hit by the demand and supply dislocation of this virus. On the other hand, the market looks to what lies beyond.
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Disneyland Tokyo (Oriental Land Corporation)'s share price might be a bellwether for that. It has beaten the market for three weeks now, up 6% on 17 March alone on a day the S&P fell 12%, in anticipation of the pent-up demand when that park re-opens.
As we look beyond, Japan's special features come to the fore again.
While the world continues to put up trade barriers and build walls, Japan in 2020 is doing the opposite. Last year, it signed comprehensive trade pacts with the EU and Pacific nations, and this year notes that it has reciprocally-negotiated tariff waivers on over half its export volume.
Japan has nearly doubled skilled labour immigration, at the same time that it taps its biggest unused resource: female workers. The country's corporate profit growth remains high on global comparison, partly because of dramatic efficiency reforms especially at smaller companies which are the backbone of the economy.
In summary, 'Japanification' had become a pejorative term for stagnation; but Japan itself is 'de-Japanifying'.
The 'good news' for a fragile Japan
In our view, one of the challenges for investors is to recognise this sea of change, shrug off preconceptions that the only stocks worth buying in Japan are the apparently cheap. But in fact, value-destroying 'old economy' sectors and find the beneficiaries of this new chapter.
Indeed, as the institutional investor of Japan becomes increasingly engaged with the home market, Japanese share prices have started to reflect growth, capital discipline and shareholder engagement rationally and consistently; and the correlation of share price to earnings has become tighter.
There are two sustainable growth themes which capture the 'de-Japanifying' Japan. First, there is the theme of Asia, invested in through Japanese companies whose profit exposure is overwhelmingly to Asia's growth in industry, healthcare or consumption.
Second, there is 'changing Japan', where the beneficiaries are companies benefitting from social and regulatory transformation.
There is a vast number of Japan domiciled and listed companies that look to Asia as their ultimate source of profit, including air conditioning specialist Daikin.
Suzuki is another such company, deriving most of its profits from Maruti, the dominant car maker in India. These stocks are liquid, have a long listed history and the companies give us comfort in their governance.
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Recent examples of 'changing Japan' are Workman, a quality but accessibly priced outdoor wear provider which challenges incumbents, and Kobe Bussan, a 'Costco' style supermarket operator which is taking share in this fragmented industry.
Last year saw other beneficiaries of change, including multi-payment service company GMO Payment Gateway and software and messaging application LINE both of which have benefitted from the growth of cashless transactions.
We suspect that these stories are still not fully known or priced in and, could be great investment opportunities.
What is more, considering the political environment, despite the end of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's term only a year away in 2021, we do not expect this would bring much change to the country or worry investors.
After all, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could amend its leadership rules - as it has done in the past - and allow Abe to stand at the next election once again. The end of Abenomics may not be near.
2020 started later for Japan than Western countries owing to the long New Year holiday, while the first week of the market was shaken by the Iran missile troubles, and thereafter by the outbreak of the coronavirus in China.
Japan is not immune from such global problems, but also no stranger to them situated as it is among hostile nuclear neighbours and with its major trade partner, China, for seven decades prone to bouts of protectionism.
Just think back to the 2003 SARS crisis and the 2011 Thailand flood which had a significant but temporary impact on the Japanese economy.
As investment managers, we monitor the impact of these types of global events on a company-by-company basis, but remain excited by the opportunities to dig out under-researched stories which abound in Japan.
As more Japanese institutions invest with us, we find that they seem to be rediscovering their own market - without the jaded pessimism of the past 20 years.
Richard Kaye is portfolio manager of the Comgest Japan Equity strategy
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