Why investors need to 'strap in' and brace for recession

Warning signs in US data

I have become more concerned about the possibility of a recession.

The picture is far from conclusive, and it is still possible markets will stabilise and the economic cycle will be extended further, but I have seen enough to convince me to become defensive. It is always better to act quickly, rather than wait until asset prices have already begun moving. One reason for my caution is that all of the potential positive news out there has already been priced in. We know the US Federal Reserve and other central banks will cut rates and there are renewed hopes for a US‑China trade deal. In addition, China has already taken steps to stimulate its econo...