Contrarian Investor: The dangers of US election complacency

clock
Contrarian Investor: The dangers of US election complacency

It strikes me, as we approach the denouement of the whole sorry saga of the US Presidential Election, that global markets are still incredibly complacent, not only just about the possibility of a Donald Trump victory but also of possible post-election turbulence.

First though, the election result itself. I have been tracking a whole bunch of sentiment measures for the last couple of weeks and they tell the story of how conventional measures of sentiment have barely budged even after the FBI emailgate revelations. With most polls showing a 4.5% difference, we are well within the margin of error scenario played out during the Brexit debate. Yet, curiously, investors seem to have stopped worrying. French bank Société Générale tracks hedge fund transactions and their latest data tells a simple story - the masters of the universe are bullish about ...

To continue reading this article...

Join Investment Week

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, analysis and opinion from the investment industry, including the Sustainable Hub covering fund news from the ESG space
  • Get ahead of regulatory and technological changes affecting fund management
  • Important and breaking news stories selected by the editors delivered straight to your inbox each day
  • Weekly members-only newsletter with exclusive opinion pieces from leading industry experts
  • Be the first to hear about our extensive events schedule and awards programmes

Join now

 

Already an Investment Week
member?

Login

More on US

European-focused investment grade and high yield credit have highest inflows since April 2020.

Fixed income dominates ETF flows in July

Accounted for $32.5bn

clock 08 August 2022 • 2 min read
Fed chair Jerome Powell
US

Fed makes further 75 basis points hike in bid to tame inflation

Rates have reached 2.25%

clock 28 July 2022 • 2 min read
Chris Brightman is the CIO and CEO of Research Affiliates

Research Affiliates: Real interest rates will remain higher even after inflation is tamed

Tougher conditions for capital markets

clock 22 July 2022 • 4 min read
Trustpilot