Contrarian Investor: The dangers of US election complacency

Contrarian Investor: The dangers of US election complacency

It strikes me, as we approach the denouement of the whole sorry saga of the US Presidential Election, that global markets are still incredibly complacent, not only just about the possibility of a Donald Trump victory but also of possible post-election turbulence.

First though, the election result itself. I have been tracking a whole bunch of sentiment measures for the last couple of weeks and they tell the story of how conventional measures of sentiment have barely budged even after the FBI emailgate revelations. With most polls showing a 4.5% difference, we are well within the margin of error scenario played out during the Brexit debate. Yet, curiously, investors seem to have stopped worrying. French bank Société Générale tracks hedge fund transactions and their latest data tells a simple story - the masters of the universe are bullish about ...

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