The Contrarian Investor: Why banks could threaten returns in 2012

CONTRARIAN

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A happy New Year to all you contrarians out there! I am not going to bother wasting your time with what I think may happen this year because I genuinely do not have a clue.

What I am much more interested in is what might go wrong and how I can provide some protection for the worst outcomes. For me, the trump card in terms of unknowable unknowables comes from Jim Leaviss and his colleagues on the bond desk at M&G. For them, the big story of the coming decade is two-fold. Firstly, our government is bust, one way or another. It will not actually formally default on its debt but it will do everything it can not to live up to the actual, real value of its debts, especially as all that off balance sheet stuff comes back ‘on’.  I am guessing that at that poi...

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