UK GDP slumps to lowest level since 2012

Anna Fedorova
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Sterling and gilt yields have dropped after an initial UK GDP estimate showed growth slowed more than expected in Q1.

The Office for National Statistics' (ONS) initial estimate of Q1 UK GDP, encompassing 40% of the relevant data, found growth halved to 0.3% from 0.6% in Q4, well below the level of 0.5% forecast by analysts.

Only two of the 39 respondents to Bloomberg's survey predicted the first quarter number accurately, and estimates ranged from 0.3% to as high as 0.8%.

This is the lowest level of economic growth in the UK since Q4 2012 and an unwelcome blow to the Conservative party just over a week before the general election.

This year's election has been hotly contested, with polls suggesting the Labour and Conservative parties are neck-and-neck and the result remaining highly uncertain.

One of the largest contributors to the slowdown in growth in the first quarter was the construction, which fell by 1.6%, while production and agriculture fell by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

The strongest sector of the economy was sevices, which expanded by 0.5%. Year-on-year GDP growth stands at 2.4%.

Sterling shed 0.5% against the dollar in response to the figures, dropping to $1.518, while 10-year gilt yields dropped from 1.71% to 1.68%.

The ONS said: "Although there has generally been growth across all major components of GDP since the start of 2013, the service industries remain the largest and steadiest contributor to economic growth and the only component of GDP where output has exceeded its pre-downturn peak."

Commenting on the figures, Anna Stupnytska, global economist at Fidelity, said: "Looking ahead, the economy should pick up momentum in the second half of the year as further signs of stabilisation emerge in the housing sector and real income growth continue gaining pace.

"The strength of the pound, however, particularly against the euro, will remain a drag on growth this year. With inflationary pressures subdued for a bit longer, the BoE is still unlikely to deliver its first hike this year."

 

 

 

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