Schroders' Sparks warns 30% chance of US recession in 2012

The US economy is at risk of being drawn into another recession next year because of contagion from Europe and inaction from policymakers, Schroders' Wes Sparks has warned.

The head of US fixed income at the group said there is now around a one in three chance of a recession taking hold next year in the States, despite positive headline figures recently. Speaking at a Schroders conference in New York this week, Sparks said: "Our central forecast is positive growth, but I would attach a 30% probability the US slips into recession in the second half of 2012." US GDP growth in Q3 was revised to 2% in November's estimate, from 2.5%, but the country still has the highest growth rate of all the developed economies at present. Sparks, who runs the Schroder I...