Matthew Rubin, director of investment strategy at Neuberger Berman, examines what the polls are currently saying and the implications for future policy.
In recent weeks, President Barack Obama has widened his lead over Mitt Romney in most polls. As of 4 October, the Iowa Electronic Markets puts Obama’s chance of winning at around 70%, up from a little over 50% in May. Obama appears to have benefited from the post-convention bounce and rising consumer confidence, though Romney’s strong showing in the first presidential debate might narrow the lead in the coming days. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives appears increasingly likely to remain in Republican control, with the market pricing in an 80% chance that the GOP will hold steady...
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