Renminbi set to continue appreciation against the dollar

ON ASIA

"China faces new and more difficult challenges today than before. The property bubble is an increasingly worrisome source of internal instability. This time, it will be much tougher for China to avoid a meaningful slowdown. It's time for the rest of the world to prepare for just such a possibility."

Just a few minutes playing around with Google provided me with this quotation. It is the type of argument frequently used to argue the renminbi will pause in its appreciation against the US dollar and indeed may go into reverse. This quotation however comes from 2005. Since that point, the Chinese economy has grown by about 70% in real terms (real GDP growth 2005-2010). Meanwhile, the currency has risen by over 23% (2005 to 20 Dec) against the dollar. The fact this quotation comes from 2005 shows it is important to concentrate on what we actually do know and avoid too much speculation...