Decisive action has allowed US equities to outperform on the way down
US equity markets have had their worst quarter since 2008.
Covid-19 has ripped the heart out of the global economy and investors in risk assets can do nothing but wait for the next shoe to drop.
SocGen's Edwards: These are dangerous times for US equities
While valuations seem more attractive, it is too early to say how low markets will go.
The draconian measures put in place to stop the virus have destroyed the travel, leisure and retail industries. Countless businesses face dire consequences as they wait for the economy to reopen.
Initial jobless claims for the third week of March jumped by three million as businesses started laying off staff.
Economic forecasters expect second quarter US GDP to fall by 15%-30% on an annualised basis. The last time GDP fell this fast was during the Great Depression.
Saudi Arabia launched an all-out assault on US shale production by oversupplying markets during a period of weak demand.
Oil prices have collapsed to $20 a barrel and many US shale producers are likely to go bankrupt in the coming months.
While President Donald Trump has toyed with the idea of reopening businesses, it appears he will have to wait a while longer.
The initial data out of Italy doesn't seem encouraging. The virus appears to be on a similar trajectory in the US and health officials expect deaths to soar in the coming weeks.
On a more positive note, the global policy response has been large and swift. The Federal Reserve has led the charge by cutting rates to 0.25% in two emergency meetings and restarting quantitative easing.
In addition, it has included corporate bonds in its bond buying programme and has extended dollar liquidity to foreign central banks.
After some initial dithering, Congress approved a $2trn fiscal aid package. The package provides support for affected industries, extends unemployment support and sends a cash payment to most US families.
These measures have helped shift the tone of the market causing a rally into month end.
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Having led global equity markets over the last decade, US equities continue to outperform on the way down.
The US dollar has been a safe haven and large cap US tech stocks continue to show relative strength.
Fahad Hassan, fund manager of AHFM US Enhanced Equity fund at Atlantic House Investments
Bull points
• US policy makers have responded decisively
• US stocks continue to outperform their global peers
Bear points
• The US economy is entering a severe recession
• Declining oil prices will drive US shale producers out of business
