What now with China 'open for business' again?
Asia was first into the coronavirus crisis, with China officially reporting cases in mid-January, but it is showing encouraging signs that it may be the first to emerge from it.
The number of new Covid-19 cases in China peaked during February and fell sharply in March.
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China and other Asian countries such as Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have managed the virus relatively well both in terms of containment and enabling businesses to continue to operate.
This is in part due to their past experience with SARS in 2003, which led to swift testing and contact tracing, as well as behavioural and cultural acceptance of strong government control.
As the spread of coronavirus in China has slowed, its economy has shown signs of a slow recovery.
China is now sending a clear message that it is open for business. Baidu's tracking app shows that 90% of shopping malls have reopened nationwide, as have a similar proportion of restaurants.
The extent of recovery is now likely to be constrained by the demand-side for a period. Production capacity is being reopened but domestic demand will take some time to recover as individuals remain wary and international demand remains significantly affected by the virus.
In terms of portfolio positioning, we are not becoming defensive but instead are looking to play into the region's expected economic recovery.
We have looked to increase exposure to companies that are not reliant on exports to the developed world; that have low exposure to hard-hit areas of the economy (such as tourism or hospitality); and that will not be hurt by low interest rates.
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There are lots of investment opportunities in the region - most prominently in China as it is first to stage a recovery - but also in other countries such as Australia, which has fallen the most in US dollar terms.
From a sector perspective, technology is throwing up some interesting opportunities as we expect supply chains and demand to recover relatively quickly.
Carolyn Chan is co-manager of the Liontrust Asia Income fund
Bull points
• There are early signs the recovery from coronavirus is being mirrored by improving economic activity as reflected in the rebound in China's March manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data
• Asian countries have more scope for government policy to support recovery; government debt to GDP ratios are lower in a global context and there is room for further monetary easing in addition to fiscal stimulus packages
Bear points
• Economic recovery will depend on coronavirus trends continuing to improve - there is always the risk of virus reintroduction and flare-ups in infections are likely
• The extent of recovery is likely to be constrained on the demand-side for a sustained period as individuals remain wary and as international markets remain affected by coronavirus
