The disruption to the global economy from the worldwide spread of the coronavirus is the biggest shock to the world since the Second World War.
It is hard to remember that it was only in early January that the outlook for the global economy in 2020 was looking rosier than it had been for all the previous year.
Global manufacturing indicators were finally tracking higher after months of weakness, the US and China signed phase one of their trade pact and part one (of many) Brexit talks had been finalised.
However, these developments are irrelevant (for now) as the world scrambles to deal with a severe global health emergency.
We expect that global economic activity will collapse over the next six months, but it could drag on for longer if current shutdowns need to be extended.
Our base case is for a global economic recession over the first half of the year. China's slow resumption back to work (which is already starting) will support global growth, but this will be offset by shutdowns in the rest of the world (especially in Europe and the US which are now experiencing a steep rise in infections and country shutdowns).
China has done a good job in containing Covid-19. Its experience shows that strict quarantine measures work.
Tracking the change in China's Covid-19 cases post-lockdowns is useful in estimating approximate times for the peak in global infections and is also a sign for share markets to start bottoming out.
To combat the hit to the economy, global central banks and governments are injecting mammoth amounts of stimulus into economies.
Fiscal stimulus has been mainly focussed to individuals and small/medium sized businesses whose cash flows have been hurt by the economic disruptions.
However, we could see more direct cash handouts to households. Monetary policy has involved large interest rate cuts (to their bottom limits), cheap funding facilities for the banks and a restart to quantitative easing programmes.
This stimulus is important in keeping the recession from turning into a depression and to help the eventual rebound in economic growth once the world overcomes the virus.
Diana Mousina is senior economist at AMP Capital
• There is plenty of global stimulus being injected - both monetary and fiscal
• There will be an opportunity for businesses in sectors such as food delivery, media streaming and digital services to thrive
• Global shutdowns of cities could persist for longer than six months, causing a global depression
• The post-coronavirus economic recovery may be slower than expected given the very large hits to consumer cash flows