The UK economy ended 2019 in stagnation, under pressure from political uncertainty and a global economic slowdown.
Early Q4 data shows that this growth malaise has spread from the production sector to services also.
However, after the decisive Conservative election win in December surveys have risen sharply, signalling that business confidence has improved.
How growth evolves will partly depend on how businesses respond to the progress of Brexit negotiations.
If this improvement in sentiment persists, we can expect a significant acceleration in business investment, which has been well below trend, and a drag on growth.
However, the path to the future relationship may not be smooth and, until the terms are confirmed, some uncertainty will persist for businesses.
If negotiations take on a confrontational tone in the second half of the year, businesses may feel less ebullient about the future and may draw in their horns.
The consumer will be another important driver of growth. Wage growth over the past six quarters has accelerated in inflation-adjusted terms, giving consumers better spending power. In time, we expect this to translate to stronger consumption growth.
Lastly, we expect the Government to announce a significant spending increase in March, with higher current spending boosting growth in 2020 and infrastructure investment spending coming through in 2021 and beyond.
In light of these reasons for optimism, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee decided against a rate cut in January, preferring to wait and see how the hard data evolves.
Over the longer term the Bank forecasts a decline in future potential GDP growth, as we enter a period of slower labour market growth due to immigration and demographic changes.
This island is not isolated from the global stage and better global growth would be a tailwind for the UK economy.
Robert Alster is head of investment services at Close Brothers Asset Management
• Fiscal stimulus will boost demand growth in 2020 and even more so in 2021 and 2022. At the same time, monetary policy makers are erring on the dovish side
• Business surveys suggest an improvement in sentiment - if this persists, it could boost investment growth. Consumers may also increase spending as lower inflation has boosted real incomes
• There is a risk that trade deal worries will resurface in the summer - this may weigh on business sentiment
• Changes to the structure of the UK economy may limit supply side growth