Will Argentine bonds be the new Ukrainian-style success story?

Investors hopeful of bounceback ahead of elections

David Brenchley
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Argentine president Mauricio Macri. Photo: Argentina Ministry of Culture/Flickr CC BY-SA 2.0
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Argentine president Mauricio Macri. Photo: Argentina Ministry of Culture/Flickr CC BY-SA 2.0

Investors are split on whether Argentine bonds can deliver stellar Ukraine-style returns ahead of a likely electoral win for Alberto Fernandez's market-antagonistic government on 27 October.

Some sovereign bonds issued by Argentina fell steeply to a face value in the mid-30s in August, after President Mauricio Macri suffered a larger-than-expected defeat in a primary election (PASO). The fall mirrored moves in the Ukrainian bond market five years ago after Russia invaded the country. Those Ukrainian bonds went on to double investors' money in a short period of time and some are hoping for a similar result in Argentina, with others sceptical of a repeat. Macri had been expected to lose narrowly before overturning the result on election day, as he had in 2015. The eventual ...

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