Do not believe in immaculate tightening

Recession likely

In Jupiter's global flexible bond strategy, it has been our view for some time that a recession was on the way (and quite a painful one).

That is now largely the consensus view in the market, but recession has not arrived yet and bulls are starting to get excited that perhaps it will not after all. The debate is not just the likelihood of recession, but whether it is credible that monetary policy could tighten so much without negative ramifications for the economy.  A relief rally, triggered by an expectation that China's ‘reopening trade' could reignite growth, has therefore been a feature of markets so far in 2023. It remains our view that a recession is highly probable. Jupiter cuts investment in unlisted asset...