Is stagflation the future? Depends on your definition

Definition is hard to pin down

A definition of stagflation is hard to pin down, writes Serdar Kucukakin, senior sovereign research analyst at Aegon Asset Management. But Kucukakin says defining it can help give an ongoing indication of travel among major Western central banks at a critical moment.

At the end of February, just after the start of the war in Ukraine, it began to look as if inflation in the West could move into double digits. The war in Ukraine was a negative to the already-strained global supply chain and would negatively affect price developments. Two months on inflation in the Eurozone (7.5%) and the US (8.5%) is yet to reach double-digit level. But with the ongoing supply chain disruptions, China still experiencing Covid problems and the fall out around commodities because of the war in Ukraine, those levels could still be on the horizon. The war in Ukraine ...