Roger Bootle: Stagflation likely as downward shocks threaten 'real' activity

Asset prices could face “major challenge”

The economic implications of inflation today are strikingly similar to those triggered by the supply shocks of the 1970s, according to economist Roger Bootle, who spoke at the Funds to Watch Conference held on 3 March 2022.

According to Bootle, the nature of the phenomenon today means it will likely become "stagflationary" as upward shocks to prices drive inflation higher at the same time downward shocks impact "real" activity. Indeed, "real inflation" will likely spell bad news for equities, he said, as asset prices face a major challenge from real hikes to interest rates. Commodity prices will continue to be driven higher by war in Ukraine, mimicking the "real events" that took place in energy markets nearly 50 years ago. Subsequent changes to policy are what impacts asset prices, according to Bootl...