2013 themes: US versus China versus Europe?

For the past 12 months and much of the past two years, two issues dominated investor mentality, at least when it comes to macro-related thinking: one is the US and the other is Europe.

Sometimes, I think both are overanalysed to a degree that makes you ask what a marginal view can add. At other times, I think, if one sticks to reasonably useful parameters – especially when they deliver a different verdict than the ‘crowd’ – even with the US and Europe, a marginal view can actually add value. Although world growth has ended up softer than most expected in 2012 – and certainly weaker than I thought – by and large, the world has avoided the big downside fears. From 40,000 feet, the key development has surely been that both the US and China have come through the year re...