The economic outlook

A recent Conjecture debate, the second part of which is transcribed here, featured Julian Chillingworth, Sunil Krishnan and Robert Quinn. They discussed the outlook for the global economy as we enter Q4 and debated the sustainability of a recovery in the key markets

With unemployment rising and government spending at a record high, taxes are likely to rise, along with interest rates and inflation, are we looking at a double-dip recession? Julian Chillingworth (JC): I have slightly changed my view. I was much more minded to think there was a danger of a double-dip recession probably three to four months ago. But the recovery has gained enough traction that I would turn it around and say we will see quite a sharp V bounce in the next few quarters and then, I suspect, the central scenario is for it to level out. What is interesting is a number of eco...