The bigger picture beyond China's slowdown

Growth could be unimpeded by trade tensions

The market narrative telling us that trade tensions are driving a Chinese slowdown is incorrect.

First, it has been a relatively minor slowdown. Second, it has been driven mainly by regulatory tightening; growth in 2017 was very strong and policymakers tightened regulations where imbalances existed, such as shadow banking wealth management products or retail leverage in the equity market. This slowed the economy slightly, while making it more robust for the future. However, in 2018, the global slowdown put a further brake on growth.  Trade wars: Will it be a Happy New Year for China-focused investment companies? Overall, there has been very little evidence that trade tensio...