SocGen's Edwards: 10-year Treasury yields will fall to -1% in the next recession

Will converge with European and Japanese 10-year yields

Tom Eckett
clock • 2 min read

Société Générale's bearish strategist Albert Edwards has told Investment Week he believes US 10-year Treasury yields will fall to as low as -1%, as he warned of "double bubble trouble" in US markets.

Edwards previously forecast that US 10-year yields will fall below zero but told Investment Week these could go as low as -1% in "the depth of the next recession" as they converge "totally" with Japan and Germany. "Sound ridiculous? German 10-year yields were -0.2% last July," he added. On Monday, rising inflation expectations caused a sell-off in the global bonds markets with spreads in US 10-years widening to 2.73%, the highest point since April 2014. Although Edwards predicted yields to widen beyond 3% first, he said they would drop into into negative territory as the US and Eur...

To continue reading this article...

Join Investment Week for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, analysis and opinion from the investment industry, including the Sustainable Hub covering fund news from the ESG space
  • Get ahead of regulatory and technological changes affecting fund management
  • Important and breaking news stories selected by the editors delivered straight to your inbox each day
  • Weekly members-only newsletter with exclusive opinion pieces from leading industry experts
  • Be the first to hear about our extensive events schedule and awards programmes

Join now

 

Already an Investment Week
member?

Login

More on Markets

Square Mile's CIO Mark Harries: Are we in an AI-generated bubble?

Square Mile's CIO Mark Harries: Are we in an AI-generated bubble?

'Only time will tell how the AI revolution reshapes the market'

Mark Harries
clock 17 May 2024 • 4 min read
Market Movers Blog: S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit record highs following US inflation data

Market Movers Blog: S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit record highs following US inflation data

Latest news and analysis

Investment Week
clock 25 April 2024 • 1 min read
How big an impact could global elections have on portfolio allocation in 2024?

How big an impact could global elections have on portfolio allocation in 2024?

US, UK and India main focuses

Investment Week
clock 19 February 2024 • 8 min read
Trustpilot