The bull and bear case for US equities

With the help of the dividend component in the total return equation, US markets posted their eighth consecutive positive return in 2015, making this bull market which started with the quantitative easing of 2009 go uninterrupted, despite the intra-year volatility.

What would it take for the S&P 500 index to post its ninth straight positive return in 2016? The record decline in oil prices, should result in excess savings in the pocket of the average US consumer, which was in rare savings mode already before. If the US consumer decides to spend these savings back into the economy through the purchase of more items, this could create a wealth effect which in turn would translate to accelerating GDP growth, and subsequently higher returns in the market. This could be a major positive development. Another major bullish point for markets is that the ...