Close AM's Curtin on 'a year for hard work'

ON NORTH AMERICA

Despite a year of shrinking government spending, and arctic conditions in the first part of the year, the US economy is in recovery mode.

The consumer is leading the way. Consumers have deleveraged and their confidence is at a six-year high, buoyed by rising property prices. It has been a bumper year for M&A activity and business surveys point to an increasing willingness to put cash to work this year, especially as improving consumption has seen inventories fall. This should feed into improved investment spending from US firms, supporting markets in the longer term. However, further proof of the underlying strength of the economy could itself prove to be a catalyst for a shorter-term bear run. Ahead of a seasonal...