Today's headline is akin to a Friday Briefing headline I wrote way back in May 2024, but it is apt for the market’s current outlook on US interest rates for the remainder of 2025.
This week, the Fed met expectations and held interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5%, a move markets had pegged with near 100% certainty. In the accompanying press conference, chair Jerome Powell citied the "highly uncertain" outlook for the US economy amid President Donald Trump's tariffs. Powell said that while the economy was still in a "solid position", and the US unemployment rate was holding at 4.2%, the "risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation appear to have risen". The chair flagged the impacts of Trump's administration, not just the tariffs but "immigration, fiscal polic...
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