Newton's Hensman on the global growth debate

GLOBAL ECONOMY

Despite the official end to the recession, the economic debate has shifted little over the summer months.

Proponents of the view the US economy is likely to lead the world into a double dip recession point to the absence of jobs recovery, the weak housing market and the continued contraction of credit as evidence of a challenging outlook. The fragility of the labour market is evident in payroll gains similar to those seen during the “jobless recovery” in the early 1990s; despite the extraordinary increase in the unemployment rate in the downturn and the enormous scale of policy stimulus. Equally in the housing market, new home sales and mortgage applications have declined to new post-cris...