How the private sector is fuelling US growth

ON NORTH AMERICA

Although US equity markets have continued to reach new all-time highs this year, sentiment towards the prospect of a sustained US economic recovery has become more tentative in the past few weeks.

Recent economic data has muted the early optimism, factory orders fell by more than 4% in March in the biggest drop since August 2012, and the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing index disappointed in March with a reading of 51, indicating only a very slight expansion in manufacturing activity. Furthermore, US GDP for the first quarter came in below forecasts at 2.5%, adding more evidence of a sub-par recovery. However, at Neptune we do not feel overly concerned by the recent economic data, as our estimates pointed to a weak first half of 2013, but with prospects for much m...