Following persistent signs of deceleration in global growth towards the end of 2011, the economic runes have been more favourable since the start of the New Year.
In the main this has been led by better figures coming out of the US, a country that has been beating expectations since the end of September. With an election coming up in November the Fed has been front-loading policy, since traditionally elections tend to stifle Fed activity. Hence, there has been a lot of positive talk from Ben Bernanke (in effect verbal QE) which, one would hope, will underwrite the modest recovery we are seeing in the US, at least moving into the summer, making a US recession unlikely for now and a significant risk factor that has been broadly neutralised. Ho...
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