A square-root-shaped economic recovery has been our team's US economic forecast since 2009.
With gradually improving news on the economy, continued strength in corporate earnings, and expanding pockets of private investment strength, we think this forecast persists into 2012. Assuming the eurozone crisis ultimately gets resolved, or at least stays on a low boil, we can be confident that many of 2011’s setbacks will not repeat themselves in 2012. We can safely assume the Japanese earthquake and the attendant supply-chain problems will not recur, Libyan oil exports can only go up in 2012 and the debt ceiling debacle from August 2011 will not be revisited until 2013. We pr...
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