Scotland ‘not guaranteed AAA rating’

An independent Scotland would not automatically receive the AAA rating enjoyed by the UK and could find itself ranked several notches lower, ratings agencies have suggested.

Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch have indicated to the Financial Times that Scotland would not be assured of the highest rating were a referendum on independence successful, in contrast to assertions made by the Scottish National Party.

One agency told the paper Scotland would receive an investment grade rating but it would likely be "some notches below AAA".

The Scottish government has not yet sought a draft opinion on its credit rating, the agencies said.

But Scotland finance secretary John Swinney said he remains confident of a top rating, because "it was difficult to deny the effectiveness and strength of the economy".

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research said last week an independent Scotland would likely run a considerable trade deficit.

"My guess is a rating agency would not give Scotland a AAA rating, and that the market would trade any bonds it issued at a wider yield than the UK which still benefits from some reserve currency status," said M&G head of retail fixed income Jim Leaviss last month.

Leaviss pointed to a disproportionate public sector and its attendant pension liabilities, questions over the sustainability of its low debt burden, and uncertainty of future revenues from North Sea oil.