Armstrong: HK dollar could disappear

The Hong Kong dollar is more likely to disappear than the euro, based on a shift in manufacturing and political factors, says Distinction Asset Management's Ana Armstrong.

The former Insight multi-manager says Hong Kong's entire manufacturing facilities moved to China around five years ago, which could soon lead to the currency becoming redundant.

"The Hong Kong dollar may have outstayed its political purpose; so that is the one that might go."

She adds Hong Kong's monetary policy is based on that of the US, which reflects high unemployment, high debt and slow growth.

However, in contrast with the US, Asia has much higher inflation, stronger growth and lower levels of unemployment.

She says: "The destruction in the purchasing power of the HK dollar is impoverishing the residents of Hong Kong.

"Mainland Chinese are coming to buy properties from Hong Kong - the property market has appreciated by 50% over the last two years, so it would be better to buy in renminbi, which is also appreciating."

She adds the Chinese monetary policy committee might also ask in the future whether having two currencies in one country is necessary.

Meanwhile, Armstrong believes the euro will survive, although she says Spain could possibly be quite toxic. This is because its banking sector was financing the construction industry, which formed around one quarter of the Spanish economy.