Goldman Sachs' statistical model of the 2014 World Cup has predicted Brazil will beat Argentina in the final - and given England just a 1.4% chance of success.
In a 67-page preview of the tournament, based on a stochastic analysis of competitive international football fixtures since 1960, the investment bank predicts the host nation will triumph 3-1 in the final. Its quantitative model gives a 48.5% probability to Brazil winning the tournament, almost double the probability assigned by some bookmakers, with Argentina the second favourites with a 14.1% chance of success. England, by contrast, are assigned just a 1.4% chance of lifting the trophy, a probability which nevertheless makes them 7th favourites for the competition. Goldman's mode...
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