Our insistence this was a V-shaped recovery has proven correct. We see continued gains in business confidence, stronger housing activity and now positive job creation in the US.
Research using data over 50 years confirms this is a normal liquidity ‘cycle’ where the impact of liquidity turning points are felt in the economy a year to 18 months later (sequentially first through bonds, then credit and commodity markets to equities and real estate). So our investment clock is now focused on the real economy and may soon drift towards the ‘inflation’ hour. Indeed, latest UK RPI figures of 4.4% – the highest for 18 months – seem to confirm this. As quantitative easing (QE) moves to quantitative tightening (QT) prepare for storms ahead. Headwinds are gathering. T...
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