Return to normalcy: Navigating the current investment landscape

Valuations will start to matter

Today, most investors agree that in an attempt to tame inflation, a global recession of sorts is almost guaranteed in 2023.

Such economic cycles are simply the norm, but due to such a lack of pain over the last decade or so, the central view among market participants is that there will be a soft slow down in growth, with peak and declining rates and inflation returning to 2%. But this is an unlikely fantasy. One scenario is that inflation is tamed, but at the cost of a proper recession - causing rates to remain higher for longer to ensure inflation's demise. Another scenario is that the Fed pivots to avoid a deep recession. The cost to this is that inflation is more likely to remain higher than the targeted 2...