When we look back at 2018, the market made several mistakes.
The largest was the belief of what drives US President Donald Trump and what it meant for growth. In our view, it was widely assumed Trump was unpredictable and irrational, but whatever he did would be pro-growth. We admit to the same error, but we see things differently now. Trump was elected on a set of promises - such as cut taxes, quit the Paris Agreement and make NATO members pay more. In most cases, he succeeded in fulfilling his promises. This makes Trump's behaviour eminently rational; he is attempting to be a politician who 'keeps his promises'. Ardevora's Lang: How to...
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