Brooks Macdonald's Park: 'Near-term US recession fears are too pessimistic'

As we begin 2019, there are several key risks facing global asset markets.

These are the US-China trade negotiations, the extent of any US economic slowdown and US Federal Reserve policy tightening. In December, investor sentiment was impinged by a combination of these factors.  The extent of the end-of-year slump caused investors to reassess valuations within the US market. The market's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio was around 18.5x in January 2018, but this had dropped to around 14x by the end of the year, equating to a fall of around 25%. Is the US/China trade truce in jeopardy? This shows that not only had prices fallen in 2018, but this...