The bottom has fallen out of gilt yields and high-yield credit spreads have been bouncing all over the place. The iTraxx high yield spread index hit a two-year high of 249 basis points (bps) to 310bps during the month, before rallying in early June to 245bps after the month-end.
These are the kinds of fluctuations that you see towards the back-end of a business cycle. The macro-implied probability of recession has spiked recently. The yield curve has inverted in the US and the...
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