Our analysis suggests the global economy moved into expansion phase around the turn of the year and will move into peak phase towards the end of 2019.
If we are correct about this then we are looking at low but positive returns from equities for the next 18 months, followed by a bear market in 2020 and possibly 2021 too. It would be nice to think we could remain overweight equities until the day equity markets peaked then very rapidly move underweight to benefit from the ensuing bear market. In reality, this of course would be impossible. What is possible is to see the peak ahead of us and to start preparing in advance. Global bond and equity markets contract by $5trn so far this year The problem is that it is hard to know for su...
To continue reading this article...
Join Investment Week for free
Signup and gain exclusive members-only insights - all free of charge!
- Unlimited access to real-time news, analysis and opinion from the investment industry, including the Sustainable Hub covering fund news from the ESG space
- Get ahead of regulatory and technological changes affecting fund management
- Important and breaking news stories selected by the editors delivered straight to your inbox each day
- Weekly members-only newsletter with exclusive opinion pieces from leading industry experts
- Be the first to hear about our extensive events schedule and awards programmes
