'A recipe for economic uncertainty': The market implications of a Trump presidency

Could benefit oil and gold

Daniel Flynn
clock • 6 min read

Investor reaction to Donald Trump's victory over Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US Election has been largely negative, with warnings about the implications of his win for the US economy and stockmarket.

Despite Clinton retaining a slim lead in the polls throughout the entirety of the presidential campaign, Republican candidate Trump triumphed in yesterday's election, surpassing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency.

Speaking after his election, Trump said: "We need to rebuild our infastructure, it will become second to none. We will put millions of people to work as we rebuild it. We will finally take care of our veterans.

"We will embark upon a project of national growth and renewal. We have a great economic plan, we will double our growth and have the strongest economy anywhere in the world."

Initial market reaction to Trump's victory has been negative with global equity markets falling and S&P 500 futures down 5%. Meanwhile, currency markets have also been hit, with the dollar shedding value against the euro, sterling, and yen.

Here, Investment Week looks at how asset managers believe Trump's victory is poised to affect a number of key areas of the US market.

US Election 2016 Live Blog

US economy

Although markets appeared to show complacency about a Trump win for much of the campaign, many warnings were made about the potential ramifications of his radical policies on the US economy.

For example, Brian Snowdon, senior teaching fellow in economics at Durham University Business School, said a Trump victory could drive the US economy into stagnation and threaten international economic integration.

"In an increasingly inter-dependent world economy, Trump's xenophobic protectionist economic strategy combined with his clear ignorance of foreign policy issues is astonishing.

"His populist policy agenda, if carried out, is a recipe for economic uncertainty, stagnation, financial market volatility, and a significant threat to international economic integration.

"Furthermore, his policies would hurt the very people who provide the bedrock of his support," said Snowdon.

However, Stephen Anness, who runs the Invesco Perpetual Global Opportunities fund, believes a Trump victory could be potentially beneficial in certain areas.

"In the short term, [Trump] will cause a hiccup in the markets, however in the long term some of his policies are actually positive.

"Reducing corporation tax rates to 15%, getting some US cash onshore and repealing Dodd-Frank would, in general, be positive for US banks," he said.

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