The global financial crisis, and the related policy response, is drawing to a close. We are currently enjoying a short period of synchronised global growth and improving trade.
But a poorly timed end-of-cycle fiscal boost (via US tax cuts) will simply bring forward an end to extremely loose central bank policy. Quantitative easing is giving way to quantitative tightening and...
The US dollar is close to peaking and the risks now seem to be on the downside.
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