100 years on and Europe is still struggling for peace

100 years on and Europe is still struggling for peace

The current crises in Eastern Europe and the Middle East could continue to affect Europe for some time. But Richard Scrope, manager of the IWI Oriel European fund, explains how the continent's stock markets have reacted to previous global conflicts

With Europe struggling to emerge from recession, and inflation close to zero, a quick and tidy resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is needed - otherwise the current market recovery might be short lived. A look back at how markets have reacted before and after the West intervened in some of the major conflicts of the 1990s and 2000s seems to suggest that, for the most part, markets dislike the uncertainty of negotiation and posturing in times of conflict, reacting better to the certainty of decisive action (see below). This is, of course, dependent on achieving a decisive victory. ...