The Contrarian Investor: A demographic story that never matters

Every year, almost like clockwork, the 'demography' argument pops up within the broader investment debate, writes David Stevenson.

My suspicion is the mental process goes something like this. In December, we look backwards to key tactical market moves and then think about what could go wrong in the New Year. In January, those crystal balls are dusted off and we do all the hard thinking about really boring stuff like asset allocation. Managers reveal the key structural changes powering portfolios But, by the end of an exhausting month of brain work, we realise maybe the frothy market prognostication is actually deeply influenced by macroeconomic stuff like deflation and the great stagnation theories currently doin...