The wonderful thing about the plunging oil price is its utter unpredictability. It is the greatest ‘Black Swan' of this decade so far.
I am inclined to believe we will not find a bottom in terms of price until the $40 and then $30 a barrel barrier is breached, but I am also honest enough to admit this is a complete guess. It is simply based on an elementary understanding of charts (a vicious looking downward trend) and a reading of comments by Saudi oil officials who seem to be saying loud and clear they are playing a deadly game of chicken with the US shale guys. So why not $20 a barrel? Back in the equally unpredictable world of investing, all manner of sages have joined the debate. Most of the media attention has ...
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