As the summer at long last hoves into view with its promise of glorious long sunny days, it is probably time to take a temperature check on the markets.
HSBC’s asset allocation guru Fredrik Nerbrand probably sums up the consensus view when he says we should think about reducing risky investments as evidence begins to suggest the current economic cycle is “near a peak”. Nerbrand said HSBC’s Leading Indicator Momentum index fell sharply to 40% from 51% in April, and added he expects global PMIs to peak in June or July. The good news is HSBC – like most of its peers – believes we are entering a soft patch, not a sharp slowdown. Yet maybe our focus on indicators based on the global business cycle misses the point. Perhaps we should be loo...
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