Forex markets signal Clinton triumph in first debate

Candidates clash as campaign heats up

Natalie Kenway
clock • 3 min read

Currency movements were in favour of Hillary Clinton during her first debate with Republican candidate Donald Trump, as the Japanese yen, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar suggested the Democrat put forward a more convincing argument.

According to the FT, ahead of the debate, currency analysts indicated the US dollar/yen pair could become a volatile bellwether of the 90-minute debate and if Republican Trump appeared to be on top, the yen could be expected to surge against the dollar.

However, from the start, the yen began to fall - having traded at about ¥100.30 against the dollar for a few hours before the debate began, the yen dipped to ¥100.84 as the debate turned to Trump's undisclosed tax returns and record of support for the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.

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Additionally, analysts watched the peso closely as it is seen as a barometer of risk for emerging markets.

The peso surged from its 19.93 low against the US dollar to 19.50 during the debate as the market swung in favour of Clinton.

Also, the Canadian dollar surged against the yen, which rose from ¥75.85 to ¥76.385 and was thought to be used as a gauge of Trump's election prospects because of his rhetorical attacks on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

"It was really surprising how closely the [Canadian dollar/yen] pair was tracking the debate," Nomura FX strategist Yunosuke Ikeda told the FT.

"Every time Trump looked too emotional, the Canadian dollar went up against the yen. When Trump shouted, the yen fell."

Citi warns Trump victory could trigger global recession

In the first of three debates in the lead up to the vote in November, Clinton and Trump disputed many key issues including the economy, trade, racism and national security.

The FT said one of Clinton's most effective blows was earmarking Trump's refusal to release his tax returns, which every presidential candidate has done since Richard Nixon.

"I think there may be a couple of reasons. First, maybe he is not as rich as he says he is. Second, maybe he is not as charitable as he claims to be. Or maybe he does not want the American people, all of you watching tonight, to know that he has paid nothing in federal taxes," she said.

While Trump promised to release his tax returns, he also fought back calling on Clinton to release the 33,000 emails that were deleted before the Federal Bureau of Investigation opened a probe into her private server - something which she admitted was a "mistake".

Trump also launched a fresh attack on Janet Yellen's Federal Reserve where he said the US is now in "a big, fat, ugly bubble", with rising interest rates on the horizon.

Clinton upped the pressure on Trump with attacks on his business record, and assertions that he had a history of racism.

After the debate, which is said to have been watched by a record 100 million viewers, analysts said Trump appeared "angry" and "fidgety" while "disciplined" Clinton emerged victorious, and said one of her best lines was: "I think Donald just criticised me for preparing for this debate. And, yes, I did. And you know what else I prepared for? I prepared to be president. And I think that is a good thing", according to the FT.

Although Trump has been gaining ground recently, polls show the candidates are neck and neck with 43 days until the election. Clinton has an average lead of 1.6% in a compilation of recent national polls by RealClearPolitics, but Trump has pulled ahead in the swing state of Ohio.

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