Goldman gives England 1.4% chance of World Cup success

clock

Goldman Sachs' statistical model of the 2014 World Cup has predicted Brazil will beat Argentina in the final - and given England just a 1.4% chance of success.

In a 67-page preview of the tournament, based on a stochastic analysis of competitive international football fixtures since 1960, the investment bank predicts the host nation will triumph 3-1 in the final. Its quantitative model gives a 48.5% probability to Brazil winning the tournament, almost double the probability assigned by some bookmakers, with Argentina the second favourites with a 14.1% chance of success. England, by contrast, are assigned just a 1.4% chance of lifting the trophy, a probability which nevertheless makes them 7th favourites for the competition. Goldman's mode...

To continue reading this article...

Join Investment Week for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, analysis and opinion from the investment industry, including the Sustainable Hub covering fund news from the ESG space
  • Get ahead of regulatory and technological changes affecting fund management
  • Important and breaking news stories selected by the editors delivered straight to your inbox each day
  • Weekly members-only newsletter with exclusive opinion pieces from leading industry experts
  • Be the first to hear about our extensive events schedule and awards programmes

Join now

 

Already an Investment Week
member?

Login

More on UK

Trustpilot