MPC warns inflation may not fall as fast as expected

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously in favour of keeping bank rate at a record low of 0.5% and maintaining QE at current levels, while warning inflation is unlikely to fall as fast as expected.

Minutes from the committee's meeting earlier this month revealed governor Mervyn King and his colleagues are concerned inflation may remain higher than expected next year.

The minutes said: "It was noted that inflation was currently materially above the target and it remained a possibility that it would be slower to fall during 2012 than the pace implied by the committee's central projections."

The latest inflation figures show CPI is running at 5%, above the 2% target, and King had previously said he expected it to potentially fall to 3% by the end of Q1 2012.

The minutes also revealed the MPC believes an expansion of the asset purchasing programme - now at £275bn - could become warranted next year. However, as inflation is still above target and likely to rise again in the long run, it had not opted to expand it further in November.

"In the light of the scale of the challenges posed by the domestic and global environments, the likely undershoot of the target was not very large and inflation was in any case projected to be rising towards the end of the forecast period," it added.

In early October the Bank of England launched a £75bn quantitative easing program, adding to the £200bn worth of gilts already purchased.

The MPC debated whether to increase this against the backdrop of the eurozone crisis, which appears to intensify every week, and weak GDP growth in the UK. Preliminary growth figures for Q3 showed output to be 0.5% but underlying growth is expected to be weaker than that.

However, concerns over higher inflation overrode this for the timebeing.

"The committee noted the existing programme of asset purchases would take a further three months to complete and market capacity made it difficult to increase the monthly rate of purchases substantially above what was already under way," the minutes said.

"Some members noted that the balance of risks to inflation in the November Inflation Report projections meant a further expansion of the asset purchase programme might well become warranted in due course; anticipation of that might itself have an effect on asset prices and demand."